[When colossal appetite drives a super giant to devour... Rian and I are thinking of 2 approaches as to how to develop what we are to claim or articulate as to how China intently tromps its way to desired levels of commodity-security and or energy-security at least in the case of its buildup and behavior in the disputed areas of the South China Sea. We are to check and relate figures too. We are also careful to distinguish between correlation and causation]
No butterfly effect here, but a colossal dragon that can instantly catalyze ever fiercer competition for natural resources between major consumer countries to regional realignments of economic or military alliances. Southeast Asia's dilemma with China's buildup and behavior in the South China Sea is likely to worsen.
[This article is under development. I am tired tonight. But I will complete this in a few days as I intermittently work on this from now on. I am trying to figure out, or picture out China's motivations or compelling rationale for some of its policies, actions or behavior, especially within the context of its present build up or behavior in the South China Sea. My mind got casually exposed to a lot of relevant numbers about the country last night, and I am (casually) trying to make sense of it all as potential underlying rationale for China's present and long-term buildup and behavior in the disputed areas of the South China Sea. I almost fell asleep reading projections for energy demands for the different types of energy sources last night.]
In terms of natural resources, Earth is shrinking. As the global population continues to expand and per capita consumption does too, and in case of China and of course India too, it's skyrocketing. Sheer numbers, as easy starting explanations. More than 2.5 billion people in both countries right now. 2 countries with relatively rapid economic growth and (continued) industrialization. In an age when hundreds of millions of hectares of trees, or of land planted to trees have forever disappeared (or converted) since the Industrial Revolution, when Earth had far greater resilience for pollution and over harvesting of its resources (water, what's in the salt and fresh waters, trees and all).
The more than 600 million population of the ASEAN regional market is roughly half of China's. The collective annual economic growth rate of the region is next only to China's. And among so many others, the growth in the number of cars in the roads of the region is also next only to China's in the next 2 decades. Most of the fastest-growing non-OECD economies in the world are in the region. And where is India in all of these? In the top 3, either as 2nd, or 3rd in many other measures of demand and demand growth for just about everything in the next 2-3 (or beyond) decades.
Therefore, growth in demands for oil for example is as sharp in China as it is in India and the ASEAN market-region. That makes the ASEAN-member countries with claims to parts of the disputed areas of the South China Sea direct competitors of China for similar resources from around the world and especially with what the South China Sea maritime region holds beneath its waters, within the waters and even the water surface (sea lanes).
Is China's behavior and aggressive claims in the disputed areas of the maritime region driven by its blind nationalistic desires and pride? Maybe the country is behaving or acting out of its developing imperialist tendency? Maybe a part of a long-term design to address its concerns about its energy security? Whatever, the "bullying" behavior attributed to the behemoth country, I think, is not simply borne out of its growing military might per se, and capability to bully as some in the Philippines think.
In 20-30 years, there will be more than 400 million new vehicles in the roads of China... Fuel economy should have vastly improved. Millions of it will be battery-powered or with hybrid engines. But the fact remains, the net consumption of fossil fuel of the estimated total number of cars in China by then (greater than the total population of the US & Canada). Though the mass transport systems of China is rapidly expanding in terms of capacity, it will not be able to catch up with the demands for mobility of the hundreds of millions of the middle class.
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Consider an insightful article in The Guardian.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/25/oil-company-bosses-bonuses-1tr-spending-fossil-fuels
“Notwithstanding the intent of nations to do so, the level and pace of
global policy action indicates a low likelihood of a global accord to restrict
fossil fuel usage to the levels referenced by the
proponents [of the resolution].”
"...Chevron did not believe political leaders convening in Paris
in December for a UN climate change summit will do much to interrupt the
growing demand for fossil fuels."
"BP said: 'Affordable, secure energy is essential for economic prosperity
and we forecast that global demand for energy is set to grow by nearly 40% by
2035. The IEA’s 450 parts-per-million
[CO2 emissions] scenario estimates that by 2040 up to 60% of the fuel
mix will still be fossil fuels; investment to develop oil and gas will continue
to be needed.'"
"Figures analysed by the Guardian from ... China’s PetroChina show
capital spending of ... $35.7bn ... expanded spending from 2006 of
$14.67bn."
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Notes yet...
Cars and other vehicles or Chinese roads will more than
double in 20 years
China needs far more oil for the transport sector in 20
years despite a leap in fuel economy by then
China aims to lessen dependence on oil imports year after
year, which even drastic improvements in fuel economy of cars and commercial
vehicles can’t offset
There will be sharp increases in demands for oil other fast
growing economies of the world, particularly the
Asian ones including the
countries bordering on the South China Sea (including the Philippines, Vietnam,
Indonesia, Thailand, etc.)
China has relatively (disproportionately in terms of its
current market size and growing demand) limited access to and control (rights
or so) of the world’s oil reserves compared to the Americans and the US firms,
and the governments of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Malaysia
India also requires growing sources for oil imports due to
the enormous percentage of the year by year increase in its demand for the
fossil fuel, and its consumption is already huge now. So India will be a
competition for access and control too, or that it’s similarly huge (however
smaller than China’s) and increasing demand will restrict ease of …
OPEC + non-OPEC output increase will not catch up with the increase in demand (?)...
The many alternative sources for energy demands by China will not offset...
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