The Dragon in the South China Sea to Others: Complain All You Can, As I Make More Artificial Islands & Super Structures in My Frontyard

Combined, the market size of the fast-growing economies of the rising Southeast Asian nations is not nothing, as their combined budget for Defense is. 

But will China's buildup & behavior in the disputed areas of the South China Sea create a regional atmosphere beyond anxiety? 

Already, the level of insecurity that it created among some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is high, and this in turn can make the leaders of each country rethink their country's long-term political and economic relationships with China. In the coming years, it can (or should) translate to an accelerated increase in the percentage of the national budget allocated for defense in each of the member states of the ASEAN. And closer military cooperation between some countries and the western powers plus Japan and South Korea (perhaps). 

China is perhaps inadvertently creating a situation counter to its long-term desire: lose it's overwhelming military superiority over individual countries in the region around the Sea. Why & how? Question of rational and irrational fears. 
___

Posts prior to this one

When Survival of One Group of Human Beings Is Feared As Unwelcome Burden or Even Existential Threat by Others
  
Philippine Big Banks Accepted & Protect Billion$ of Dirty Money?

___

China: Drawing legitimacy for claims based on some ancient maps?

The fast-growing region of ASEAN, home to emerging tiger economies (and tiger Singapore), would not want national insecurity to accompany it's rise to middle-income status (2nd World economic status of member Malaysia now within reach). 

The situation already is awakening the sense of nationalism even among the rather simple masses in the Philippines (supposedly those who don't care much about issues beyond what impact their daily struggles to survive or improve their economic lot in this country with the most grotesque inequality among the ASEAN member states).

Will this ignite a new sense of patriotism among even the young gen of Filipinos?



A Page in This Blog 
To Professor Chomsky: Only Top Cop US Can & Should Impose Order & Fair Play

Anywhere in the world, there's no serious challenge to the United States' naval power, still. But in the near future, in the South China Sea at least, China can impose a new order. Does it intend to? Why not? What do you think?



But as to the whether or not the claimant countries will make any decisions or commit to any actions that they think might offend China, the cases of Venezuela, Cuba and in recent years Ukraine can teach us a lesson: Economic dependence or common interests are not guarantees of unfailing submission to a bigger power. Especially among people with strong sense of nationalism (Vietnam).

I grew up having a very high regard of the Chinese people and China as a nation. It did not retake Macau & Hongkong by force or any means earlier than what the international legal agreements stipulated. And does it have any modern day history of invading another nation? It exercises extreme restraint (or is China restrained rather?) in its desire about Taiwan. It did not seek to avenge what it suffered in the Opium Wars and in WWII. And China was technologically the most advanced nation on Earth for so many centuries. (I'm open to corrections and arguments, as always.)

A Page in This Blog 
To Professor Chomsky: Only Top Cop US Can & Should Impose Order & Fair Play

But when there's no need for a status quo to drastically change, and the stakes are high, why create a disorder amidst regional peace and harmony that prevails? What's the greater self-interest will it serve the nation? What will it deprive the rest of the claimant nations and stakeholders in the South China Sea?

Japan is re-interpreting the relevant provisions in its postwar Constitution. If it ever feels the accelerating rise of China becomes more and more a potential question of survival for itself (existential threat) how many billion$ will Japan allocate to build and maintain "support" or so facilities the economic giant (& industrial & technological superpower) will be invited to make in some countries in the region?

Militarily, Japan is a sleeping giant and a superdragon in terms of its technological prowess to develop very advanced weapons systems very fast. It's industrial and research infrastructure can only be matched by the US (& Germany perhaps), who should welcome a bigger "support" role for Japan in the region.

The present generation of beings inhabiting Earth will see another region of the world where countries arm themselves to MAD scales (mutually-assured destruction) that can elevate the prospects of regional or global war a bit, or to unpredicted and irrational regional armed conflicts, maybe. Sad, but that's how it is. Is offense capability really the best defense? Is agression-capability protection of interests of a nation? Is it the same principles that will drive the desiscions and actions of the affected individual nations in the region? I need the wisdom of someone on this.